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1 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR REAL ESTATE BY RENA MOUROUZI-SIVITANIDOU Edited by Petros Sivitanides
2 In memory of my very dear and beloved Rena, An unconditionally loving and caring wife, A most dedicated and extremely hard working teacher, academician, and researcher who left the imprints of her wonderful personality in the hearts of so many students that attended her classes and everyone who knew her May her soul rest in eternal joy, peace, and happiness Petros Sivitanides This is a compilation of the lecture notes and handouts that Dr Sivitanidou used during the nine years that she taught the very successful course Market Analysis for Real Estate in the Master in Real Estate Development programme at the University of Southern California. This effort was initiated per the recommendation of her colleagues at the University after she passed away in The responsibility for any omissions or mistakes that may be found in the book lies exclusively with the editor. Copyright 2011 by Petros Sivitanides - 2 -
3 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A: CHAPTER 1: MARKET ANALYSIS IN PERSPECTIVE Page 12 BOOK PREMISE, FOCUS AND OBJECTIVES MARKET ANALYSIS IN PERSPECTIVE DEFINITION AND CONTRIBUTION MARKET ANALYSIS COMPONENTS Metropolitan Growth Analysis Macroeconomic Analysis of Real Estate Markets Microeconomic (Site-Specific) Analysis of Development Projects MARKET STUDIES AND THEIR EMPHASIS Residential Retail Office Industrial MARKET STUDIES IN GENERAL: EVALUATION CRITERIA BOOK STRUCTURE AND CONTENT CHAPTER 2: BASIC REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS Page 30 REAL ESTATE DEMAND REAL ESTATE DEMAND CONCEPTS DEMAND SENSITIVITY TO PRICE/RENT CHANGES: PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND Impact of Actual Price Changes vs Expected Price Changes EXOGENOUS DETERMINANTS OF REAL ESTATE DEMAND MEASURING CHANGES IN REAL ESTATE DEMAND: ABSORPTION CONCEPTS THE SUPPLY OF REAL ESTATE REAL ESTATE SUPPLY CONCEPTS The Long-Run Aggregate Supply: Is it Relevant? The Short-Run Aggregate Supply New Construction - 3 -
4 NEW CONSTRUCTION BEHAVIOR What Determines New Construction? REAL ESTATE PRICE ADJUSTMENTS PRICE DETERMINATION MECHANISM LONG-RUN VS SHORT-RUN PRICE ADJUSTMENTS THE STOCK-FLOW MODEL: A FORECASTING TOOL ASSESSING DEMAND-SUPPLY IMBALANCES DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTIONS: MARKET INEFFICIENCIES ASSESSING THE EXTENT OF DISEQUILIBRIUM: POPULAR MEASURES Construction Minus Net Absorption (C-AB) Nominal Vacancy Rate (V) ALTERNATIVE MEASURES/METHODOLOGIES Nominal vs Structural Vacancy (V-V*) Prevailing Rent vs Implicit Equilibrium Rent (R-R*) PART B: METROPOLITAN GROWTH ANALYSIS CHAPTER 3: METROPOLITAN GROWTH PATTERNS Page 71 GROWTH ANALYSIS IN PERSPECTIVE DEFINING METROPOLITAN GROWTH GROWTH MECHANISMS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REAL ESTATE DEMAND-INDUCED GROWTH: CAUSES AND LONG-RUN CONSEQUENCES Growth Stimuli Mechanism and Long-Run Consequences Real Estate Market Impacts SUPPLY-INDUCED GROWTH: CAUSES AND LONG-RUN CONSEQUENCES Growth Stimuli Mechanism and Long-Run Consequences Real Estate Market Impacts CHAPTER 4: ANALYZING METROPOLITAN ECONOMIES Page 84 MAIN ANALYSIS STEPS 1. Identification of Spatial Unit of Analysis 2. Analysis of Basic Growth Indicators 3. Analysis of Population Trends 4. Analysis of Sectoral Employment, Income, and Industry-Structure Trends - 4 -
5 5. Synthesis: Growth Prospects DATA SOURCES General Sources of Population, Employment, Income Data Sources of Metropolitan Forecasts PROJECT #1: ANALYZING METROPOLITAN GROWTH PATTERNS APPENDIX 4A: ABOUT INDICES PART C. ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS CHAPTER 5: RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS Page 117 OVERVIEW OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS BASIC HOUSING MARKET ECONOMICS HOUSING DEMAND: ANALYSIS ELEMENTS Households and Demographic Structures Income, Prices, Affordability Mortgage Rates and Inflation Expectations NEW HOUSING SUPPLY New Residential Construction The Supply of Resale Homes CHAPTER 6: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS: ACCOUNTING TECHNIQUES Page 141 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK MARKET AREA DEFINITION TIME FRAME OF ANALYSIS ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL MARKET STRENGTH Accounting Techniques: The Aggregate Approach Accounting Techniques: The Disaggregate Approach PROJECT #2: ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE RESIDENTIAL DEMAND USING THE ACCOUNTING APPROACH - 5 -
6 CHAPTER 7: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS: THE BASICS OF THE ECONOMETRIC APPROACH Page 166 THE BASICS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS Evaluating Regression Models Prediction APPLICATIONS OF REGRESSION MODELS IN MARKET ANALYSIS A Numerical Example of a Simple Linear Regression Multiple Regression Models APPENDIX 7A: FURTHER ON LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS APPENDIX 7B: STATISTICAL TABLES CHAPTER 8: MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS: APPLYING THE ECONOMETRIC APPROACH Page 186 APPLYING THE ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO THE DALLAS APARTMENT MARKET Step 1: Collect Demand, Supply and Rent Data Step 2: Develop a Simple Forecasting Model Step 3: Estimate the Rent and Permit Equations Step 4: Develop Forecasts and Perform Sensitivity Analysis PROJECT #3: FORECASTING THE LOS ANGELES APARTMENT MARKET APPENDIX 8A: CALCULATING THE SPEED OF RENTAL ADJUSTMENT CHAPTER 9: ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS: A MICRO PERSPECTIVE Page 214 ANALYZING RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS: A MICRO PERSPECTIVE QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS SITE AND LOCATION ANALYSIS The Site and its Immediate Environment Neighborhood and Community Attributes Access and Linkages ANALYSIS OF LOCAL MARKET CONDITIONS CONSUMER TARGETING AND REFINEMENT OF PRODUCT DESIGN QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL PROJECTS: ESTIMATING PROJECT RENT AND ABSORPTION RATE ANALYZING THE COMPETITION: THE COMPETITIVE DIFFERENTIAL TECHNIQUE - 6 -
7 Analysis Steps Numerical Example Critique HEDONIC VALUATION TECHNIQUES Analysis Steps Applications Numerical Example Using Hedonic Valuation Techniques to Calculate Competitive Position Indices Critique of the Hedonic Valuation Technique PROJECT ABSORPTION AND GROSS REVENUE ANALYSIS Numerical Example of Project Absorption Analysis Econometric Estimation of Project Absorption PROJECT #4: ON HEDONIC PRICE MODELS CHAPTER 10: ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS: SYNTHESIS AND MARKET STUDIES Page 261 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT: AN EXAMPLE THE PROJECT AND RELEVANT MARKET AND FINANCIAL DATA ANALYSIS DETERMINING OPTIMAL DESIGN AND DENSITY ESTIMATING PROJECT ABSORPTION AND REVENUE SCHEDULE EVALUATING RESIDENTIAL MARKET STUDIES A REVIEW OF AN ACTUAL HOUSING MARKET STUDY PART D. ANALYZING THE MARKET FOR RETAIL SPACE CHAPTER 11: RETAIL MARKETS AND RETAIL MARKET STUDIES Page 294 IDIOSYNCRACIES OF THE MARKET FOR RETAIL SPACE RETAIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS THE DEMAND FOR RETAIL SPACE Components of Retail Space Demand Purchasing Power Spending Patterns THE SUPPLY OF RETAIL SPACE RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES OVERVIEW: THE THREE PHASES OF A RETAIL MARKET STUDY PHASE I: ANALYZING ENTRY PHASE II: LOCATION ANALYSIS/EVALUATION PHASE III: PROJECT EVALUATION - 7 -
8 CHAPTER 12: ANALYZING THE MARKET FOR RETAIL SPACE Page 315 PHASE I: ASSESSING UNREALIZED SALES POTENTIAL DEFINITION/TYPES OF MARKETS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES METHOD 1: ESTIMATING UNREALIZED SALES POTENTIAL THROUGH ACCOUNTING TECHNIQUES Example of the Application of the Accounting Technique Critique of the Accounting Technique METHOD 2: ESTIMATING UNREALIZED SALES POTENTIAL THROUGH ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES Example of the Application of the Econometric Approach Critique of the Econometric Approach STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS OF MARKET POTENTIAL PHASE II: ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION OF RETAIL SITES THE SPATIAL BEHAVIOR OF CONSUMERS LOCATION SELECTION SPATIAL DEMAND ANALYSIS SUPPLY ANALYSIS PREFERRED LOCATION TRAITS ACROSS CENTER TYPOLOGIES PHASE III: REFINING AND EVALUATING THE RETAIL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO STAGE 1: REFINEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO STAGE 2: RETAIL TRADE AREA DEFINITION STAGE 3: COMPETITION ANALYSIS STAGE 4: SHOPPING PATTERN ANALYSIS STAGE 5: EVALUATING THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN Step 1: Estimating the Development s Likely Capture Rate Step 2: Estimating Sales Potential by Line of Trade Step 3: Estimating Supportable Square Footage by Line of Trade Step 4: Estimating Achievable Retail Space Rents Step 5: Assessing the Development Scenario APPENDIX 13A RETAIL DATA SOURCES CHAPTER 13: ANALYZING THE MARKET FOR RETAIL SPACE: SYNTHESIS AND MARKET STUDIES Page 368 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT: A SIMPLE EXAMPLE - 8 -
9 EMPHASIS OF RETAIL MARKET STUDIES EVALUATING RETAIL MARKET STUDIES CASE STUDY: MARKET ANALYSIS FOR A FARMER S MARKET PART E. OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS CHAPTER 14: THE MARKET FOR OFFICE SPACE Page 382 OFFICE MARKET IDIOSYNCRACIES AND DETERMINANTS OF PROJECT SUCCESS OFFICE MARKET FUNDAMENTALS OFFICE SPACE DEMAND AND PROSPECTS Office-Using Sectors On Net Absorption and its Determinants THE SUPPLY OF OFFICE SPACE Income-Related Factors Cost-Related Factors and Availability of Capital OVERVIEW OF OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS CHAPTER 15: OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS: A MACRO PERSPECTIVE Page 396 ANALYZING OFFICE MARKETS: A MACRO PERSPECTIVE What Market Variables should be Analyzed? Numerical Example ASSESSING OFFICE MARKET STRENGTH OVERVIEW OF OFFICE MARKET GAP ESTIMATION SIMPLE ACCOUNTING TECHNIQUES FOR FORECASTING OFFICE- USING EMPLOYMENT AND OFFICE SPACE DEMAND Aggregate Approaches: Using Office Employment Growth Disaggregate Approaches: Using Industry-Occupation Matrices Example OFFICE SUPPLY ANALYSIS USING ACCOUNTING APPROACHES Critique ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING OF OFFICE MARKETS Forecasting Office Space Absorption, New Construction, Vacancies, and Rents Alternative Rent Adjustment Formulations SUBMARKET ANALYSIS Types of Office Nodes How to Analyze Office Submarkets - 9 -
10 PROJECT #5: ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING OF OFFICE MARKETS APPENDIX 15A: DATA SOURCES CHAPTER 16: MICRO ANALYSIS OF OFFICE MARKETS Page 432 ANALYZING OFFICE LOCATIONS But do Office Rents Fully Reflect Location Amenity Differentials? ANALYZING OFFICE PROJECTS: ESTIMATING ACHIEVABLE RENTS AND ABSORPTION SCHEDULES COLLECTION OF DATA FOR COMPETING PROPERTIES Identify Comparable Office Properties Collect Information on the Identified Comparables DATA ANALYSIS Using the Competitive Differentials Technique to Assess Project Strength and Achievable Rental Rates Critique Using Hedonic Methodologies to Estimate Achievable Lease Rates Critique Developing Office Project Absorption and Revenue Schedules APPENDIX 16A: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS ON OFFICE FIRM LOCATION CHAPTER 17: OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS: SYNTHESIS AND MARKET STUDIES Page 462 EXAMPLE: MULTI-TENANT OFFICE DEVELOPMENT MARKET STUDY SPECIAL CASE: MEDICAL OFFICES EVALUATING OFFICE MARKET STUDIES PROJECT #6: EVALUATING AN OFFICE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO PART F. INDUSTRIAL MARKET ANALYSIS CHAPTER 18: THE MARKET FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE Page 477 INDUSTRIAL MARKET IDIOSYNCRASIES THE DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL SPACE THE SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL SPACE
11 INDUSTRIAL MARKET ANALYSIS: AN OVERVIEW Macroeconomic Analysis of Industrial Markets Site-Specific Analysis of Industrial Projects MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL MARKETS ESTIMATING THE INDUSTRIAL DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP THROUGH ACOUNTING TECHNIQUES ACCOUNTING TECHNIQUES FOR FORECASTING INDUSTRIAL SPACE DEMAND Method 1: Demand Analysis for General-Purpose Industrial Space Method 2: Best-Fit Industry Analysis ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE INDUSTRIAL MARKET Modeling Investment in Non-Speculative Industrial Structures Modeling the Speculative Industrial Market SITE-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS OF INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS Step 1: Evaluation of Site Attributes Step 2: Identification of Types of Tenants Most Likely to be Attracted to the Site Step 3: Analysis of the Competition Step 4: Estimation of Project Absorption Schedule and Achievable Rents or Land Prices ON INDUSTRIAL MARKET STUDIES: EVALUATION CRITERIA REFERENCES AND OTHER READINGS CHAPTER 19: DATA SOURCES Page 513 SOURCES FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET DATA SOURCES FOR ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
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Whether you have a business that is large or small, staying on top of market trends is vital for its success. Determining what it is that is driving demand, the strategies being used by your competitors, and what marketing technique will work for are all things that can be found by doing a Market Analysis. This will also help you when you need to reevaluate your current strategies and business plans.
What is Market Analysis?
A market analysis is used to determine the dynamics of a certain market in a specific industry. It provides information and data regarding competitors, customers, the industry, and other market variables. It can also give you details on supply and demand for a certain service or product. All of this helps the business create market strategies based on informed decision-making.
There are 4 main parts to market analysis; the industry overview, your target market, your competition, and your forecast and pricing.
Use this to describe the industry you are in and what direction it seems to be heading in. This is a bit different from doing market research because, with industry research, you are looking at all of the businesses that are similar to your own. With market research, you are learning about your buyers.
This section will detail who your ideal customers are. You need to consider:
- Market size – this refers to the pool of potential customers who need your product or service.
- Demographics – this gives details about the gender, age, income, and education of your average customer.
- Location – used to describe a specific region or location that customers come from.
- Psychographics – this is where you will describe the likes and dislikes of your customers.
- Behaviors – look at how your customers purchase and shop for products and services like yours.
- Trends – details noticeable trends within the market.
A detailed market analysis needs to have information on your competition, such as their strengths and weaknesses, and gaps in services or products in the market that you can offer. The important areas to look at are:
- Direct competition – this refers to businesses that offer services and products similar to your own.
- Indirect competition – this refers to businesses that offer alternatives solutions for problems that your company solves.
- Uniqueness – refers to how you are different from the competition.
- Entry barriers – refers to how you are protecting yourself from new competition, such as having patents or a really good location.
Pricing and forecast
Your last step is to determine what your pricing is and then create a sales forecast. This can help figure out what part of the market you may be able to get into. Use your forecast as a way to track sales and your goals.
You can download any of our free templates and samples to get a better understanding of how to do a Market Analysis.
Market Analysis Example
Market Analysis Template for PDF
Market Analysis Template (PDF)
Market Research & Analysis Report for PDF
Real Estate Market Analysis Template (Excel)
The template you use for market analysis is dependant on the industry you are in and what your requirements are for the analysis. Each business has its own requirements for its market analysis, but there are certain things that they should all cover.
Step 1 – Market Description
This is your starting point and should detail the type of market that you are operating in. It should include things, such as what your target market is, demographics of the target market, purchasing behavior, needs, and so on. You should also consider the size of your market in order to determine the profitability of your target market,
Step 2 – PFF
Also known as Porter’s Five Forces, this framework will help you with analyzing your competition in the market. The 5 areas to consider are:
Supplier’s bargaining power
This refers to suppliers in the industry and how easy it is for them to raise their prices. This is an important consideration because, as the prices of suppliers increase, it will affect your net inflow. Consider how many suppliers you can do business with, how unique their services or products are, and how much it would cost to switch suppliers.
Buyer’s bargaining power
This refers to the buyer’s influence and how easy it is for them to cause your prices to drop. You can do this by determining how many buyers you have and how many orders they place. It’s also important to consider what the cost would be for them to switch from your services and products to one of your competitors. Also, consider whether you have the power to influence the purchasing behavior of your buyers.
You need to get familiar with your competition. Look at how many competitors there are in your market, what the quality of their services and products are, the quantity they offer, and how this compares to the services and products that you offer. Knowing what the competition’s marketing strategies are will give you a better idea of how this influences the behavior of the market.
Substitute product threats
Your next task is to consider how easy it is for buyers to replicate your services or products themselves. Is it easy for them to outsource the product or service, cutting you out of the process? Buyers often look to cut their expenses by switching to a substitute that costs less and offers the same thing that you do.
Up and coming competition threats
Lastly, you want to determine how easy it is for any new business to enter your market. The more competition in your market, the smaller the share you will have in the pool of customers. You can start by analyzing what it would cost to start a new business in your market, as well as looking at any regulations within the industry.
Step 3 – Market Trends
Once you’ve gone over PFF, it’s time to look at market trends. This means determining things such as the purchase behavior of customers, price sensitivity in the market, and the influence of suppliers over prices.
Step 4 – The Competitive Landscape
To get a better idea of what you are up against, you need to look at the competitive landscape. Knowing what your competitor’s pricing, product quality, and marketing strategies are can help you improve key areas of your business. This will help you stay a top contender.
Step 5 – Success Factors
Your last step is to look at your key success factors, such as ensuring your business’s continued growth and success, what your strengths and weaknesses are, how you reach your objectives and goals for your business and taking time to reevaluate all of these things to come up with a fresher market plan and analysis.What is a market overview example?
This is a brief outline of the market that provides a snapshot of the present to get a better idea of its key features and marketing activity.What are the advantages of market analysis?
The main advantage is to help a business protect itself from a potential loss by identifying how it can reach potential customers.What is competitive market analysis?
This type of analysis identifies your rivals/competition and lets you evaluate what their marketing strategies are, their weaknesses, and strengths in relation to your products and services.